[NEMO-devel] Result difference
Yusak Tanoto
yusak.tanoto at gmail.com
Thu Sep 28 09:35:54 AEST 2017
Hi Dr. Ben,
I just realized that I have experienced results difference between what is
listed right after the iteration finished (Jamali-PV = [.........]) and the
following breakdown after running 100 iterration, although the simulation
satisfy the reliability constraint (unserved energy 0.002 and LOLP 0.274).
The last one is like this:
C:\Users\Yusak Tanoto\Documents\nemo-Indonesia\nemo-edited>python -m scoop
evolve.py -s Jamali-PV -d scale:110 -g 100
[2017-09-28 09:13:14,854] launcher INFO SCOOP 0.7 1.1 on win32 using
Python 2.7.13 (v2.7.13:a06454b1afa1, Dec 17 2016, 20:42:59) [MSC v.1500 32
bit (Intel)], API: 1013
[2017-09-28 09:13:14,854] launcher INFO Deploying 4 worker(s) over 1
host(s).
[2017-09-28 09:13:14,854] launcher INFO Worker distribution:
[2017-09-28 09:13:14,854] launcher INFO 127.0.0.1: 3 + origin
{'verbose': False, 'trace_file': None, 'fossil_limit': None,
'supply_scenario': 'Jamali-PV', 'carbon_price': 25, 'reserves': 0,
'discount_rate': 0.05, 'coal_price': 3.5, 'gas_price': 10.9, 'hydro_limit':
150.0, 'reliability_std': None, 'geothermal2_limit': 200.0,
'emissions_limit': None, 'ccs_storage_costs': 27.0, 'lambda_': None,
'bioenergy_limit': 20.0, 'demand_modifier': ['scale:110'], 're_limit':
None, 'lolp_std': None, 'nsp_limit': 0.75, 'seed': None, 'list_scenarios':
False, 'transmission': False, 'costs': 'Indonesia2030Mid', 'generations':
100, 'sigma': 2.0, 'min_regional_generation': None}
fitness hallfame
----------- -----------
gen nevals min min
0 15 1.38705e+15 1.38705e+15
1 15 2.3736e+14 2.3736e+14
2 15 71.7156 71.7156
3 15 68.5933 68.5933
4 15 61.9614 61.9614
5 15 60.905 60.905
6 15 56.781 56.781
--------------------------------------------
95 15 51.3926 51.3826
96 15 51.3702 51.3702
97 15 51.4275 51.3702
98 15 51.4273 51.3702
99 15 51.6488 51.3702
Jamali-PV: [15.409046732884701, 1.7222013518375101, 8.3462172104824983,
15.538314391372536, 10.556889362917959, 8.7746846991700274,
13.08950232073305, 8.0203929213724301, 11.047838934170874,
9.2266373469077383, 0, 16.541477118404561, 10.100857070020616,
20.518031615710981, 11.997746175400911, 12.387589958041254,
5.7491295143515693, 18.775730807261123, 7.6424579331404816,
2.0118168520321245, 0, 2.1059111519489067, 0, 10.465303019230809, 0,
1.8352937636816455, 0, 2.3753121109034288, 0, 2.4158953576921229, 0, 0,
0.34389522814178952, 2.9917206278015609, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0]
Generators:
polygon 1 PV (JAVA:1), 4.00 GW
supplied 6.087 TWh, CF 17.4%, capcost $3,292,000,000, opcost
$94,434,706, LCOE $50
polygon 2 PV (JAVA:2), 1.72 GW
supplied 2.73 TWh, CF 18.1%, capcost $1,417,371,712, opcost
$40,702,818, LCOE $48
polygon 3 PV (JAVA:3), 8.35 GW
supplied 13.32 TWh, CF 18.2%, capcost $6,868,936,764, opcost
$197,289,741, LCOE $48
polygon 4 PV (JAVA:4), 2.00 GW
supplied 3.196 TWh, CF 18.2%, capcost $1,646,000,000, opcost
$47,278,229, LCOE $48
polygon 5 PV (JAVA:5), 10.56 GW
supplied 17.23 TWh, CF 18.6%, surplus 0.0 TWh, capcost
$8,688,319,945, opcost $249,700,402, LCOE $47
polygon 6 PV (BALI:6), 2.00 GW
supplied 3.25 TWh, CF 18.6%, surplus 0.0 TWh, capcost
$1,646,000,000, opcost $47,300,172, LCOE $47
polygon 1 Hydro (JAVA:1), 1.40 GW
supplied 12.26 TWh, CF 100.0%, capcost $3,220,000,000, opcost
$122,203,200, LCOE $27, ran 8,760 hours
polygon 2 Hydro (JAVA:2), 1.40 GW
supplied 12.26 TWh, CF 100.0%, capcost $3,220,000,000, opcost
$122,203,200, LCOE $27, ran 8,760 hours
polygon 3 Hydro (JAVA:3), 1.40 GW
supplied 12.26 TWh, CF 100.0%, capcost $3,220,000,000, opcost
$122,203,200, LCOE $27, ran 8,760 hours
polygon 4 Hydro (JAVA:4), 1.40 GW
supplied 12.26 TWh, CF 100.0%, capcost $3,220,000,000, opcost
$122,201,535, LCOE $27, ran 8,760 hours
polygon 5 Hydro (JAVA:5), 0.00 GW
supplied 0 TWh, ran 0 hours
polygon 6 Hydro (BALI:6), 1.40 GW
supplied 12.25 TWh, CF 99.9%, capcost $3,220,000,000, opcost
$122,134,899, LCOE $27, ran 8,758 hours
polygon 1 Geothermal2 (JAVA:1), 1.70 GW
supplied 14.85 TWh, CF 99.7%, capcost $3,763,800,000, opcost
$78,397,693, LCOE $21, ran 8,741 hours
polygon 2 Geothermal2 (JAVA:2), 1.70 GW
supplied 14.84 TWh, CF 99.6%, capcost $3,763,800,000, opcost
$78,386,233, LCOE $21, ran 8,734 hours
polygon 3 Geothermal2 (JAVA:3), 1.70 GW
supplied 14.82 TWh, CF 99.5%, capcost $3,763,800,000, opcost
$78,372,169, LCOE $21, ran 8,720 hours
polygon 4 Geothermal2 (JAVA:4), 1.70 GW
supplied 14.79 TWh, CF 99.3%, capcost $3,763,800,000, opcost
$78,354,297, LCOE $21, ran 8,712 hours
polygon 5 Geothermal2 (JAVA:5), 1.70 GW
supplied 14.71 TWh, CF 98.8%, capcost $3,763,800,000, opcost
$78,296,674, LCOE $21, ran 8,686 hours
polygon 6 Geothermal2 (BALI:6), 1.70 GW
supplied 14.58 TWh, CF 97.9%, capcost $3,763,800,000, opcost
$78,203,953, LCOE $22, ran 8,621 hours
polygon 1 Black_Coal (JAVA:1), 7.64 GW
supplied 63.06 TWh, CF 94.2%, capcost $10,332,603,125, opcost
$3,716,523,908, LCOE $69, ran 8,536 hours, 48.7 Mt CO2
polygon 2 Black_Coal (JAVA:2), 2.01 GW
supplied 15.29 TWh, CF 86.8%, capcost $2,719,976,383, opcost
$908,983,808, LCOE $71, ran 7,786 hours, 11.8 Mt CO2
polygon 3 Black_Coal (JAVA:3), 0.00 GW
supplied 0 TWh, ran 0 hours, 0.0 Mt CO2
polygon 4 Black_Coal (JAVA:4), 2.11 GW
supplied 15.09 TWh, CF 81.8%, capcost $2,847,191,877, opcost
$902,696,769, LCOE $72, ran 7,401 hours, 11.7 Mt CO2
polygon 5 Black_Coal (JAVA:5), 0.00 GW
supplied 0 TWh, ran 0 hours, 0.0 Mt CO2
polygon 6 Black_Coal (BALI:6), 10.47 GW
supplied 51.96 TWh, CF 56.7%, capcost $14,149,089,682, opcost
$3,262,468,410, LCOE $80, ran 6,931 hours, 40.2 Mt CO2
polygon 1 CCGT (JAVA:1), 0.00 GW
supplied 0 TWh, ran 0 hours, 0.0 Mt CO2
polygon 2 CCGT (JAVA:2), 1.84 GW
supplied 3.332 TWh, CF 20.7%, capcost $1,224,140,940, opcost
$343,150,725, LCOE $126, ran 2,187 hours, 1.3 Mt CO2
polygon 3 CCGT (JAVA:3), 0.00 GW
supplied 0 TWh, ran 0 hours, 0.0 Mt CO2
polygon 4 CCGT (JAVA:4), 2.38 GW
supplied 2.97 TWh, CF 14.3%, capcost $1,584,333,177, opcost
$324,434,534, LCOE $143, ran 1,539 hours, 1.2 Mt CO2
polygon 5 CCGT (JAVA:5), 0.00 GW
supplied 0 TWh, ran 0 hours, 0.0 Mt CO2
polygon 6 CCGT (BALI:6), 2.42 GW
supplied 1.736 TWh, CF 8.2%, capcost $1,611,402,203, opcost
$215,305,545, LCOE $184, ran 970 hours, 0.7 Mt CO2
polygon 1 OCGT (JAVA:1), 0.00 GW
supplied 0 TWh, ran 0 hours, 0.0 Mt CO2
polygon 2 OCGT (JAVA:2), 0.00 GW
supplied 0 TWh, ran 0 hours, 0.0 Mt CO2
polygon 3 OCGT (JAVA:3), 0.34 GW
supplied 0.1483 TWh, CF 4.9%, capcost $130,336,291, opcost
$28,805,117, LCOE $251, ran 468 hours, 0.1 Mt CO2
polygon 4 OCGT (JAVA:4), 2.99 GW
supplied 0.5199 TWh, CF 2.0%, capcost $1,133,862,117, opcost
$136,698,620, LCOE $404, ran 383 hours, 0.4 Mt CO2
polygon 5 OCGT (JAVA:5), 0.00 GW
supplied 0 TWh, ran 0 hours, 0.0 Mt CO2
polygon 6 OCGT (BALI:6), 0.00 GW
supplied 0 TWh, ran 0 hours, 0.0 Mt CO2
polygon 1 Biomass (JAVA:1), 0.00 GW
supplied 0 TWh, ran 0 hours
polygon 2 Biomass (JAVA:2), 0.00 GW
supplied 0 TWh, ran 0 hours
polygon 3 Biomass (JAVA:3), 0.00 GW
supplied 0 TWh, ran 0 hours
polygon 4 Biomass (JAVA:4), 0.00 GW
supplied 0 TWh, ran 0 hours
polygon 5 Biomass (JAVA:5), 0.00 GW
supplied 0 TWh, ran 0 hours
polygon 6 Biomass (BALI:6), 0.00 GW
supplied 0 TWh, ran 0 hours
Timesteps: 8760 h
Demand energy: 349.8 TWh
Unused surplus energy: 0.0 TWh
Timesteps with unused surplus energy: 11
Unserved energy: 0.002%
Unserved total hours: 23
Number of unserved energy events: 14
Shortfalls (min, max): (34.0, 667.0)
Loss of Load: 0.26%
Total hours of Loss of Load: 23
Score: 51.37 $/MWh
Total emissions: 116.08 MtCO2
What do you think this happened?
Thank you so much for your help,
Yusak
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